🧃017: The Juicy Chat - From Signals to Trends, Addison Cain of Spate on Decoding Consumer Behavior.
How Spate turns billions of data points into real-world trends, and what today’s signals reveal about where beauty and wellness are headed.
In this series, I’m chatting with insiders across beauty, retail, wellness, and investing — the ones in the trenches. This isn’t your typical “tell me how you did it” interview. I’m asking ✨ what you wish you knew, 😬 what got messy, 👀 what people never see - hoping to provide deeper insight into what often looks seamless from the outside.
Each conversation follows a 5-question format, plus two recurring bonus questions I ask every guest. If there is someone you think would be great for this series (or you), message me 😊.
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I first came across Spate in 2018 while at Unilever, immediately recognizing the sharpness of their data-led approach. Few teams were translating billions of consumer signals into usable trend frameworks with real beauty expertise. Addison Cain, Senior Insights & Marketing Lead at Spate, and I have compared notes on emerging beauty, wellness, and consumer behavior trends over the years. What I value most is her clear-eyed, analytical approach to cutting through hype and finding what’s actually real.
In this interview, she shares how Spate evaluates early signals, the role TikTok plays in trend acceleration, and how ChatGPT is beginning to rewire search behavior
🔴 JUICY BYTE: Can you walk us through how you turn those scattered signals into a watchlist that becomes a true, trackable trend?
🔵 Addison Cain: This process really comes down to the work of Spate’s data operations and tech teams, who use a combination of AI, machine learning, and human review to take billions of disparate signals across our data sources (Google Search, TikTok, and Instagram at the moment, with ChatGPT on the way) and categorize them according to Spate’s taxonomy and clusters.
The insights team I lead then takes these categorized signals and turns them into reports for both external marketing and client use. One of the most exciting parts of our taxonomy and trend tracking is that 200 of the world’s leading CPG brands are on the platform. We receive hundreds of suggested new trends and signals each week from clients, which means Spate’s data is constantly being enriched by experts working directly in the field. Our team reviews and adds these on a weekly basis.
🔴 JUICY BYTE: What’s your process for knowing when an early signal is worth betting on, and what did heartleaf teach you about timing and conviction?
🔵 Addison Cain: Everything starts with objective data signals. We begin by looking at the popularity of an early signal, like heartleaf in South Korea, relative to others in the market. Some of the key questions we consider, which Spate can answer using data and established metrics, include: How big is this signal compared to others? What is its trajectory? Is it a spike and crash, or steady growth? And what is the quality of consumer queries?
For example, are people only asking about one viral product, or are they beginning to explore the ingredient more deeply with questions like “What are the benefits of heartleaf?” or “Does heartleaf help with acne?” When related topics such as benefits or acne become more detailed, that is a strong sign of trend potential because it shows that consumers are learning and diving deeper and continuing their exploration.
Our insights team members are also beauty and wellness experts. In addition to monitoring data signals, our category managers and analysts, who cover beauty, personal care, wellness, and functional foods, stay tapped into the market through news, social feeds, Reddit, Substack, and more. We pair data with deep category knowledge.
🔴 JUICY BYTE: Spate started before TikTok, how do you feel TikTok has accelerated and changed the trend cycle and how people discover what’s next?
🔵 Addison Cain: Spate co-founders, Yarden Horwitz and Olivier Zimmer, who started Google’s Trendspotting division and identified trends like face masks, turmeric, and cold brew, began with Google Search as our core data set, and it remains critical today.
When TikTok emerged, we saw an immediate influence on the trends appearing in our data, and in some cases it shaped what would later take off on Google. TikTok is an incredible amplifier and accelerator, especially for micro trends like “latte makeup” or vanilla perfume. But we often see that while TikTok accelerates trends, many of these moments reflect slower moving macro shifts happening far beyond the platform.
For example, latte makeup, even though it was viral on TikTok, sits within the broader “Clean Girl Aesthetic,” which reflects a broad cross platform consumer preference (though indeed, many of the buzzy names that catch-on are TikTok derived). Similarly, the surge in vanilla perfume on TikTok aligns with a longer gourmand fragrance trend cycle that we have been tracking since the rise of Baccarat Rouge in the early pandemic.
🔴 JUICY BYTE: As ChatGPT adoption grows, what stands out to you about how people are using it compared to search and how does that shape the signals you look for?
🔵 Addison Cain: In our preliminary research of AI, search speaking specifically to ChatGPT, we found that consumers still use ChatGPT far less than Google when searching in CPG categories. On average, ChatGPT accounts for about 7 percent of total searches compared to Google. In Beauty, the number is even lower at 4.3 percent, while categories like Beverages perform slightly better at 6.2 percent.
In beauty, we’ve found that ChatGPT is preferred for product and technique recommendations, while Google dominates visual searches like haircuts and hairstyles. When it comes to transactions, users still rely on other platforms rather than ChatGPT. We are excited to explore this data further as ChatGPT introduces new shopping features. Right now, Google Search remains a top indicator of consumer intent. If someone is searching for a product on Google, they are likely looking to buy it. But if shopping on ChatGPT becomes more seamless, that intent may shift across platforms, and that is something we are eager to understand.
🔴 JUICY BYTE: You’ve described Spate as highly responsive to client needs. How has that customer-service mindset fueled your growth?
🔵 Addison Cain: Spate prioritizes new data sets and regions based on user feedback, and this has been central to our growth. Our clients are some of the top beauty and wellness experts in the world, and their input is incredibly valuable in shaping the platform’s evolution. Because we work across roles like R&D and marketing, we also receive excellent function specific feedback that helps refine not only the broader platform but also the way Spate insights support individual job needs. Overall, both internally and externally, Spate is a company that deeply values feedback.
🌟🌟🌟BONUS ROUND🌟🌟🌟
🔴 JUICY BYTE: What’s a product you resisted buying... and now you can’t live without?
🔵 Addison Cain: I am such a bad beauty expert because I get the worst analysis paralysis when it comes to big purchases. Maybe it is because I am researching dozens of trends and products a week, but I talk myself out of almost everything. On a beauty device level, I’m eyeing the ZIIP Halo, which was recommended by my friend and incredible skincare expert Jolie De Feis, who writes Hotline Skin. Maybe I will finally take the plunge. TBC.
That said, I rarely say no to a new lip liner or fragrance. Over the last couple of years, I have really enjoyed getting into the fragrance community in New York. I have met some of the most interesting and passionate people, which has been inspiring both personally and professionally. Some of my favorite fragrance buys include Prada Infusion d’Iris, Frederic Malle Carnal Flower and Portrait of a Lady, Flower by Kenzo, and just this week I was gifted the beautiful Karat EG by Maison D’Etto. For lip liners, I am highly susceptible to a trend. I have everything from the Hailey Bieber loved MUFE Wherever Walnut Lip Liner to Maybelline’s Lifter Liners.
🔴 JUICY BYTE: What’s a brand you’re low-key obsessed with right now — and why?
🔵 Addison Cain: I’m currently pregnant, so body care is top of mind. Two brands I trust completely for incredible body products are Soft Services and Mutha. I swear by their Buffing Bars and Body Butter, respectively. My face has also been much drier than usual, and I have been loving the Aestura Atobarrier 365 Cream, Sachi Skin Future Veil Firm and Repair Peptide Cream, and Prequel Half and Half Fluid Moisturizers. Previously, I mainly just used the extremely simple but amazing Aveeno Calm + Restore Oat Gel Moisturizer, but lately I have appreciated the extra oomph. Also, because my skin is normally very oily, I’ve actually enjoyed the change of pace. It is giving me a chance to experience the category as a new kind of consumer.
Thank you for reading along!
💡 Stay tuned for more!
- Anne
2025/09/02